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Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Right now, Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 39.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Bourne for a 3.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Bourne ranks in the #99 percentile and has put up 11.31 yards per target this season.Bourne's 82.3% completion rate marks him in the #97 percentile among receivers.This year, the Patriots have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Bourne's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed 9.17 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #30-highest among NFL opponents.The Jacksonville Jaguars rank #32-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 75.2%.As a unit, the Jaguars cornerbacks rank #23 in pass coverage.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Patriots have faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (26.0%).
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CONS:
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As a unit, the Jaguars safeties rank #8 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, New England has run the #25-fastest paced offense this season.The Patriots are a 17.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.4% of the time (#26 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New England to drop back to pass on 50.3% of their plays in this game (#29-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Bourne ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 46.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Bourne ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 68.5% of New England's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Bourne ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 12.8% of passes this season.The Jaguars's pass defense ranks #16-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 154 yards per game this season.The New England Patriots are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #19-most on the game slate.New England's O-Line grades out as the #13-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Bourne open.New England's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.New England has run play-action on 26.3% of their passes this year, #14-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Bourne to exceed his player prop total 57.4% of the time. He projects for 47.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $8.52. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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