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Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
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Right now, Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 73.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 71.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 73.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Allen ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 87.8% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Allen ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 91.7% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Allen ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 26.3% of passes this season.Allen's 71.8% completion rate marks him in the #79 percentile among receivers.The weather forecast here calls for 1-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Broncos cornerbacks rank #25 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 67.1% of the time (#4 in the NFL).Los Angeles's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Los Angeles has run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Chargers have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
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CONS:
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The Denver Broncos rank #5-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 61.0%.The Chargers are a 8.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Allen for a -0.8% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Allen ranks in the #50 percentile and has put up 8.09 yards per target this season.The Broncos's pass defense ranks #13-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 153 yards per game this season.The Denver Broncos have allowed 7.88 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #11-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Broncos safeties rank #18 in pass coverage.The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #20-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 61.6% of their plays in this game (#13-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #14-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Allen open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Allen to exceed his player prop total 49.0% of the time. He projects for 72.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.41 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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