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Keelan Cole Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
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Right now, Keelan Cole Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 28.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 29.2 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Cole for a 6.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Cole ranks in the #73 percentile and has put up 8.94 yards per target this season.In a neutral context, New York has run the #7-fastest paced offense this season.The Jets are a 16.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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Cole's 57.5% completion rate marks him in the #20 percentile among receivers.The Bills's pass defense ranks #1-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 122 yards per game this season.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 6.33 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #1-highest among NFL opponents.The Buffalo Bills rank #3-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.6%.As a unit, the Bills cornerbacks rank #8 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Bills safeties rank #1 in pass coverage.New York's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.54 seconds on average this year (#24-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.New York has run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Jets have faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Cole ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 55.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Cole ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 58.1% of New York's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Cole ranks in the #49 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 9.6% of passes this season.The New York Jets are projected to run 63.3 plays in this matchup, the #14-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.0% of the time (#16 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New York to drop back to pass on 61.2% of their plays in this game (#16-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.New York's O-Line grades out as the #22-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Cole open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Cole to exceed his player prop total 51.7% of the time. He projects for 30.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.26 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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