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Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
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Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 35.8 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.89 yards per target this season, ranking in the #69 percentile.Toney has been in the #95 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 79.5% completion rate.New York has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Philadelphia Eagles safeties rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.The New York Giants have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.New York is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 63.0% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.6% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Giants offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Philadelphia's defense has allowed 133 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#30-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #23-most yards per target (7.78) against the Eagles this season.Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.Toney's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Toney has been on the field for 38.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #41 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 46.8% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #43 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 14.9% -- #65 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Toney is projected for -0.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #46 percentile among wide receivers.The Eagles have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.4% of their targets this season, (#11-most in the league).The Giants project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 34.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.48 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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