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Justin Jackson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Justin Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line has ranked #5 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jackson is projected for 31.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chargers project to run 65.0 total plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.Los Angeles is a 13.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Houston Texans have ranked #31 against the run this year, holding opponents to 146 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Houston's defense has allowed 4.91 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#30-least in football).Texans linebackers have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Texans safeties have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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He has been on the field for 18.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #26 percentile among running backs.Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 33.0% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL), and they project to run 33.0% of the time in this contest.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked box 19.4% of the time this season -- #5-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has received 15.6% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #71 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offenses projects to runs 39.0% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Texans defensive ends have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Texans defensive tackles have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Houston Texans have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #11 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $8.02. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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