| |
Justin Herbert Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 279.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 278.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 279.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
This year, at #4-best in the league, Herbert has passed for283 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #14-best in the league, completing passes at a 66.8% clip.In terms of efficiency, Herbert has been #13 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.44 yards per target.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run 64.6 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 66.2% of the time (#4 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 64.2% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's offensive has kept pressure off Justin Herbert for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL).Los Angeles has run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Chargers have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).Las Vegas has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.6% of their targets, which ranks them #27-best in the NFL.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #25-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's defensive tackles rank #27 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Raiders, they've stacked the box on 22.2% of their plays this season, #1-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
This year, the Chargers have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #3-most in football and means Herbert's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Chargers enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Las Vegas's #5-ranked pass defense has allowed 217 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Las Vegas's defense is #2-best. This is because they allowed 6.94 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's defensive ends rank #2 this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #12-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #15-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #17-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's linebackers rank #13 this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Herbert to exceed his player prop total 57.7% of the time. He projects for 301.9 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $9.16. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
