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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 290.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 286.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 290.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Herbert has passed for 288 yards per game this year, #5-best in the league.He's been the #13-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.0% clip.Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chargers project to run 65.2 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 67.9% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.7% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Chargers offensive line has given Justin Herbert 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with the #24-best pass defense this season, allowing 269 yards per game through the air.The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.8% of their targets, ranking #25 in the NFL.Kansas City's defense has been #25-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.13 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #30-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #2-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #6-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #28-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Herbert has been #14 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.43 yards per target.Justin Herbert's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Chiefs linebackers have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 308.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.66. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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