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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 287.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 291.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 287.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Herbert has passed for 292 yards per game this year, #4-best in the league.Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 68.3% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 65.6% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Chargers offensive line has given Justin Herbert 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#19.4%).The Cincinnati Bengals enter this game with the #25-best pass defense this season, allowing 269 yards per game through the air.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #23-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bengals linebackers have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #9-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #21-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.9% clip.Efficiency-wise, Herbert has been #20 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.32 yards per target.The Chargers project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.Justin Herbert's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.9% of their targets, ranking #22 in the NFL.Cincinnati's defense has been #15-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.74 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #15-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bengals defensive ends have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box on 15.7% of their plays this season, #12-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 280.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.00 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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