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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 272.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Herbert has passed for 289 yards per game this year, #7-best in the league.Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 67.9% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.6% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Chargers offensive line has given Justin Herbert 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.2% of their passes this year, #10-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#19.6%).The Denver Broncos have had the #26-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Broncos defensive ends have ranked #28 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Denver Broncos enter this game with the #9-best pass defense this season, allowing 234 yards per game through the air.The Broncos have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.4% of their targets, ranking #1 in the NFL.The Denver Broncos have stacked the box on 8.9% of their plays this season, #28-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #20-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.8% clip.Efficiency-wise, Herbert has been #18 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.35 yards per target.The Chargers project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.Justin Herbert's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Denver's defense has been #11-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.61 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Denver Broncos have had the #19-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Denver Broncos have had the #17-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Broncos linebackers have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Denver's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #16-quickest in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 272.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$7.31 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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