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Justin Fields Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
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Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 203.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 208.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 203.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Chicago is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Minnesota Vikings enter this game with the #27-best pass defense this season, allowing 271 yards per game through the air.Minnesota's defense has been #29-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.36 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #32-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box on 16.7% of their plays this season, #10-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Fields has passed for 147 yards per game this year, #36-best in the league.He's been the #32-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 58.8% clip.This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 54.0% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Justin Fields's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.5% of their targets, ranking #8 in the NFL.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #7-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #2-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Fields has been #23 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.02 yards per target.Chicago has played in the #15-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Chicago Bears have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bears project to run 62.3 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.The Bears offensive line has given Justin Fields 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).Vikings defensive ends have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Vikings linebackers have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 184.4 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $8.58. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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