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Julio Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Julio Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-115/-110) with an implied projection of 50.9 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His target share this season has been 18.2% -- #76 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.43 yards per target this season, ranking in the #94 percentile.Jones has been in the #68 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 68.5% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #2-most yards per target (9.42) against the Jaguars this season.The Jaguars have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 74.9% of their targets this season, (#1-most in the league).Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.The Titans offensive line has given the QB 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (22.7%).
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CONS:
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The Tennessee Titans have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Tennessee is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 55.6% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 52.8% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Jones's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jones has been on the field for 57.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 72.2% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #63 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for 1.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.Jacksonville's defense has allowed 164 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#13-most in football).Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.The Titans project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.73 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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