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Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
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Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Reynolds is projected for 6.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Minnesota's defense has allowed 189 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #7-most yards per target (9.30) against the Vikings this season.Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.Detroit is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.90 yards per target this season, ranking in the #19 percentile.Reynolds has been in the #30 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 59.9% completion rate.Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Reynolds has been on the field for 37.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #39 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 50.8% of Detroit's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #45 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 10.1% -- #51 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The Vikings have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.9% of their targets this season, (#22-most in the league).The Detroit Lions have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Lions project to run 62.5 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 61.4% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Reynolds's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Lions offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 46.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.39. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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