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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
 
 
 
Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Palmer is projected for 13.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.13 yards per target this season, ranking in the #77 percentile.
  • Palmer has been in the #86 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 74.1% completion rate.
  • Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Houston's defense has allowed 170 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.45) against the Texans this season.
  • The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.8% of their targets this season, (#7-most in the league).
  • Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • Houston Texans safeties rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chargers project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 67.0% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).
  • The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).

  • CONS:
  • Palmer has been on the field for 30.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #31 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 32.5% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #32 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 5.5% -- #30 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Los Angeles is a 13.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.0% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Palmer's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.0% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.89. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
     
     
     
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