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Josh Palmer

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -115.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Palmer is projected for 13.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.13 yards per target this season, ranking in the #77 percentile.
  • Palmer has been in the #86 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 74.1% completion rate.
  • Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Houston's defense has allowed 170 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.45) against the Texans this season.
  • The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.8% of their targets this season, (#7-most in the league).
  • Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • Houston Texans safeties rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chargers project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 67.0% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).
  • The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).

  • CONS:
  • Palmer has been on the field for 30.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #31 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 32.5% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #32 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 5.5% -- #30 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Los Angeles is a 13.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

  • This offenses projects to pass 61.0% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Palmer's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.0% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.89. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.

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