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Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 52.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 54.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 63.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #94 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 63.7% this year puts him in the #93 percentile among running backs.This year, the Raiders have played in 11 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #1-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 4.64 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #23-best in the metric this season.
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CONS:
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Jacobs finds himself in the #72 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 52 yards.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 59.7 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.The Raiders are a 8.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Las Vegas has been the #27-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 35.0% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #32-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 31.7% of their plays.The defensive tackles of Indianapolis have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Indianapolis have been the #1-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Las Vegas has faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (16.3% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Las Vegas's ranks #21 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Jacobs for a 3.6% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.The Colts defense has allowed 110 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #15-least in football.The defensive ends of Indianapolis have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Indianapolis have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Colts have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #17-most in the NFL this year at 14.4% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jacobs to exceed his player prop total 51.0% of the time. He projects for 53.6 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.41 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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