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Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
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Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 62.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #93 percentile among running backs.He has received 62.0% of Las Vegas's carries this year -- #11 percentile when it comes to running backs.Las Vegas has played in 10 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#1-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Denver Broncos have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #27 most in the league.
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CONS:
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The Raiders project to run 60.6 total plays in this contest, the #29-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 33.9% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL), and they project to run 33.9% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 33.7% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Denver Broncos have ranked #7 against the run this year, holding opponents to 102 yards per game on the ground.Broncos linebackers have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Broncos safeties have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Las Vegas Raiders have faced a stacked box 16.3% of the time this season -- #9-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jacobs has been the #30-leading rusher this season, tallying 46 yards per game on the ground.The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has ranked #22 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jacobs is projected for 4.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.In terms of efficiency, Denver's defense has allowed 4.35 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#13-least in football).Broncos defensive ends have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 60.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.43. It's return on investment would yeild 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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