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Josh Allen Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 238.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 243.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 238.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #5-best in the league, Allen has passed for279 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Allen has been #13 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.35 yards per target.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 67.6% of the time (#3 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Buffalo to drop back to pass on 62.4% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's defensive ends rank #27 this season.
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CONS:
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The Bills enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.New England's #4-ranked pass defense has allowed 198 passing yards per game this year.New England has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.4% of their targets, which ranks them #4-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, New England's defense is #8-best. This is because they allowed 7.21 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New England Patriots have had the #8-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The New England Patriots have had the #3-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The New England Patriots have had the #8-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #18-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.7% clip.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.Buffalo's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's defensive tackles rank #12 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New England's linebackers rank #12 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Allen to exceed his player prop total 47.2% of the time. He projects for 230.9 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $0.92. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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