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Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 251.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 258.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 251.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Allen has passed for 279 yards per game this year, 5th-best in the league.This offenses projects to pass 63.7% of the time in this contest (3rd-most in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Buffalo has played in the most high-wind games (15 mph+) of any team this year (six games), which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The weather forecast is calling for low winds of just 2 mph this week, which makes completing passes much easier.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Buffalo Bills have run play-action on 40.5% of their passes this year, 4th-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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The New England Patriots enter this game with the 4th-best pass defense this season, allowing 198 yards per game through the air.New England's safeties grade out as the 3rd-best in pass coverage this year.Patriots linebackers have ranked 2nd-best this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Bills offensive line has given the QB 2.56 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (6th-worst in football).The Patriots have played at the 5th-slowest pace in football this season, which could drag Buffalo's play count down below its usual level.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Buffalo Bills have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bills project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 58.6% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Josh Allen's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bills offensive line has given Josh Allen 2.49 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The New England Patriots have had the #11-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Patriots defensive ends have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Patriots defensive tackles have ranked #22 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 208.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $1.32. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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