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Jordan Howard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Jordan Howard Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Philadelphia's ranks #10 in that regard this season.Teams run the ball more when it's windy, and forecasts call for 18-mph wind in this game.The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 65.5 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.Philadelphia has been the #1-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 46.3% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #1-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 50.7% of their plays.The defensive ends of Tampa Bay have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Howard for a -13.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Eagles are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.The Buccaneers defense has allowed 90 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #3-least in football.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 4.23 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #9-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Tampa Bay have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Tampa Bay have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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His 33.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #52 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 32.9% this year puts him in the #57 percentile among running backs.This year, the Eagles have played in 5 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #13-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #16-fastest paced offense this season.The linebackers of Tampa Bay have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Howard to exceed his player prop total 49.8% of the time. He projects for 30.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.58 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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