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Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 108.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 107.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 108.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Indianapolis's ranks #4 in that regard this season.His 68.7% snap rate this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 70.2% this year puts him in the #96 percentile among running backs.The Colts are a 8.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Indianapolis has been the #9-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 41.3% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #8-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 45.3% of their plays.The defensive ends of Las Vegas have been the #25-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Las Vegas have been the #29-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Taylor finds himself in the #99 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 108 yards.This year, the Colts have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Indianapolis's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for Indianapolis this week.In a neutral context, Indianapolis has run the #31-fastest paced offense this season.The linebackers of Las Vegas have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Raiders have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #1-most in the NFL this year at 22.2% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Taylor for a 6.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 62.4 plays in this matchup, the #21-most on the game slate.The Raiders defense has allowed 115 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #19-least in football.The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 4.28 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #11-best in the metric this season.The safeties of Las Vegas have been the #20-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Indianapolis has faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (13.6% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Taylor to exceed his player prop total 53.5% of the time. He projects for 115.6 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $0.09. That makes its return on investment yield +0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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