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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 22 - Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 276.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 280.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 276.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #9-best in the league, Burrow has passed for263 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #2-best in the league, completing passes at a 69.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Burrow has been #3 in the NFL this season. He averages 8.08 yards per target.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Bengals enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time (#10 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 64.0% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #24-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.In terms of passing efficiency, Los Angeles's defense is #9-best. This is because they allowed 7.24 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #3-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #10-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive ends rank #1 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's linebackers rank #9 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Los Angeles's #16-ranked pass defense has allowed 233 passing yards per game this year.Los Angeles has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.5% of their targets, which ranks them #19-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive tackles rank #20 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Burrow to exceed his player prop total 58.7% of the time. He projects for 301.6 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $13.27. That makes its return on investment yield +12%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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