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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 289.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 278.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 289.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #9-best in the league, Burrow has passed for263 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #2-best in the league, completing passes at a 69.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Burrow has been #3 in the NFL this season. He averages 8.08 yards per target.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.The Bengals are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time (#10 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 62.9% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's #30-ranked pass defense has allowed 260 passing yards per game this year.Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.7% of their targets, which ranks them #26-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Kansas City's defense is #25-best. This is because they allowed 8.11 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #24-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's defensive tackles rank #29 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #11-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's defensive ends rank #12 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's linebackers rank #16 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Burrow to exceed his player prop total 52.0% of the time. He projects for 295.1 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.88 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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