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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 278.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 286.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 278.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #9-best in the league, Burrow has passed for263 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #2-best in the league, completing passes at a 69.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Burrow has been #3 in the NFL this season. He averages 8.08 yards per target.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 60.5 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.The Bengals enter as a 4.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time (#10 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 62.3% of their plays in this game (#5-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tennessee's #25-ranked pass defense has allowed 248 passing yards per game this year.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's defensive tackles rank #30 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's linebackers rank #28 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Tennessee has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.5% of their targets, which ranks them #10-best in the NFL.The Tennessee Titans have had the #2-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tennessee's defensive ends rank #7 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of passing efficiency, Tennessee's defense is #19-best. This is because they allowed 7.70 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tennessee Titans have had the #19-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans have had the #12-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Burrow to exceed his player prop total 43.1% of the time. He projects for 259.2 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $9.45. That makes its return on investment yield +9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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