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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 262.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 270.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 262.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #9-best in the league, Burrow has passed for263 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #2-best in the league, completing passes at a 69.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Burrow has been #3 in the NFL this season. He averages 8.08 yards per target.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.4% of the time (#10 in the NFL).Las Vegas has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.8% of their targets, which ranks them #27-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's defensive tackles rank #25 this season.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The Bengals enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Las Vegas's #5-ranked pass defense has allowed 204 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Las Vegas's defense is #2-best. This is because they allowed 6.95 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's defensive ends rank #3 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 57.0% of their plays in this game (#11-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #15-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #17-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #22-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Las Vegas's linebackers rank #15 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Burrow to exceed his player prop total 44.6% of the time. He projects for 247.5 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $6.40. That makes its return on investment yield +6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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