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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 277.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 281.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 277.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #11-best in the league, Burrow has passed for257 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #4-best in the league, completing passes at a 69.3% clip.In terms of efficiency, Burrow has been #3 in the NFL this season. He averages 8.00 yards per target.The Bengals enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bengals have faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).Kansas City's #26-ranked pass defense has allowed 266 passing yards per game this year.Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.0% of their targets, which ranks them #23-best in the NFL.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #24-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's defensive tackles rank #29 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Bengals have played in the #22-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati has run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #3-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #5-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's defensive ends rank #7 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Chiefs, they've stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #28-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time (#13 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 59.8% of their plays in this game (#16-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #22-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Cincinnati's offensive has kept pressure off Joe Burrow for 2.42 seconds on average this year (#12-most in the NFL).In terms of passing efficiency, Kansas City's defense is #20-best. This is because they allowed 7.84 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's linebackers rank #19 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Burrow to exceed his player prop total 42.8% of the time. He projects for 257.4 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $7.94. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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