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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 264.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 254.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Burrow has passed for 243 yards per game this year, #12-best in the league.He's been the #7-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.1% clip.Efficiency-wise, Burrow has been #5 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.82 yards per target.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati have faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).The Baltimore Ravens enter this game with the #31-best pass defense this season, allowing 274 yards per game through the air.The Baltimore Ravens defense ranks #30-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.40.Baltimore's cornerbacks grade out as the #26-best in pass coverage this year.Baltimore's safeties grade out as the #26-best in pass coverage this year.Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays this season, #8-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Cincinnati has played in the #22-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bengals project to run 61.3 plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.Cincinnati is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 57.1% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.The Ravens have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.5% of their targets, ranking #5-best in the NFL.Baltimore's linebackers grade out as the #5-best in pass coverage this year.Ravens linebackers have ranked #9 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offense passes the ball 60.2% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).Joe Burrow's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals offensive line has given Joe Burrow 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#12-best in football).Ravens defensive ends have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Burrow putting up 263.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.81 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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