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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 256.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 260.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 256.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Burrow has passed for 253 yards per game this year, #12-best in the league.He's been the #6-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.2% clip.Efficiency-wise, Burrow has been #4 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.97 yards per target.Cincinnati is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati have faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).The Denver Broncos have had the #26-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Broncos defensive ends have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Broncos linebackers have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Cincinnati has played in the #21-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bengals project to run 58.3 plays in this contest, the #32-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.The Broncos have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.4% of their targets, ranking #2 in the NFL.The Denver Broncos have had the #5-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Denver Broncos have stacked the box on 8.9% of their plays this season, #27-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.2% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Joe Burrow's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals offensive line has given Joe Burrow 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Denver Broncos enter this game with the #12-best pass defense this season, allowing 239 yards per game through the air.Denver's defense has been #11-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.49 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Denver Broncos have had the #19-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 249.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.21 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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