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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - NFC Championship Game
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 232.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 245.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 232.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #12-best in the league, Garoppolo has passed for248 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #7-best in the league, completing passes at a 68.0% clip.In terms of efficiency, Garoppolo has been #1 in the NFL this season. He averages 8.42 yards per target.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The 49ers enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 61.2% of their plays in this game (#4-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #24-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time (#28 in the NFL).In terms of passing efficiency, Los Angeles's defense is #9-best. This is because they allowed 7.24 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #3-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #10-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive ends rank #1 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's linebackers rank #9 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Los Angeles's #16-ranked pass defense has allowed 233 passing yards per game this year.Los Angeles has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.5% of their targets, which ranks them #19-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive tackles rank #20 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Garoppolo to exceed his player prop total 70.3% of the time. He projects for 291.5 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $37.67. That makes its return on investment yield +34%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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