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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 220.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 217.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 220.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #12-best in the league, Garoppolo has passed for244 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #8-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.7% clip.In terms of efficiency, Garoppolo has been #1 in the NFL this season. He averages 8.35 yards per target.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 64.0 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.The 49ers enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.San Francisco has run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #23-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time (#27 in the NFL).San Francisco's offensive has kept pressure off Jimmy Garoppolo for 2.52 seconds on average this year (#23-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The 49ers have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).In terms of passing efficiency, Los Angeles's defense is #10-best. This is because they allowed 7.28 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #2-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #10-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive ends rank #3 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Rams, they've stacked the box on 4.9% of their plays this season, #32-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 62.7% of their plays in this game (#12-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's #19-ranked pass defense has allowed 250 passing yards per game this year.Los Angeles has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.7% of their targets, which ranks them #19-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive tackles rank #16 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's linebackers rank #12 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Garoppolo to exceed his player prop total 72.2% of the time. He projects for 284.9 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $40.25. That makes its return on investment yield +35%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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