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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers
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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 248.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 254.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Efficiency-wise, Garoppolo has been #2 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.28 yards per target.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Jimmy Garoppolo's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.The Cincinnati Bengals enter this game with the #26-best pass defense this season, allowing 273 yards per game through the air.The Bengals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.5% of their targets, ranking #26 in the NFL.Bengals linebackers have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The San Francisco 49ers have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).The 49ers offensive line has given Jimmy Garoppolo 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#10.5%).The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #7-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Garoppolo has passed for 233 yards per game this year, #19-best in the league.He's been the #15-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.9% clip.The 49ers project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 56.2% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Cincinnati's defense has been #17-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.86 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #21-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #20-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bengals defensive ends have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box on 15.7% of their plays this season, #12-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 244.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 46.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $0.15. It's return on investment would yeild 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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