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Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
 
 
 
Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 221.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 231.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • He's been the #12-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.0% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Garoppolo has been #2 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.16 yards per target.
  • San Francisco has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The 49ers project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo's offensive line has been #5 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.
  • The Seattle Seahawks enter this game with the #32-best pass defense this season, allowing 288 yards per game through the air.
  • The Seahawks have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.9% of their targets, ranking #32 in the NFL.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #25-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Seahawks defensive ends have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box on 20.1% of their plays this season, #4-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • San Francisco is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).
  • The 49ers offensive line has given Jimmy Garoppolo 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#10.5%).
  • Seahawks linebackers have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Garoppolo has passed for 229 yards per game this year, #20-best in the league.
  • This offenses projects to pass 57.1% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Seattle's defense has been #21-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.05 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #21-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #16-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Seahawks defensive tackles have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 247.4 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.19. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
     
     
     
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