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Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 42.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of route running, Jeudy ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 77.8% of Denver's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Jeudy ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 20.0% of passes this season.Jeudy ranks in the #69 percentile and has put up 8.77 yards per target this season.Jeudy's 71.9% completion rate marks him in the #81 percentile among receivers.This year, the Broncos have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Chiefs's pass defense ranks #26-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 168 yards per game this season.The Broncos are a 11.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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As a unit, the Chiefs cornerbacks rank #6 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Chiefs safeties rank #9 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Denver has run the #30-fastest paced offense this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Jeudy ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 64.9% of his team's snaps this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Jeudy for a -1.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 8.50 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.The Kansas City Chiefs rank #14-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.6%.The Denver Broncos are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.2% of the time (#21 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Denver to drop back to pass on 61.0% of their plays in this game (#16-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Denver's O-Line grades out as the #15-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jeudy open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jeudy to exceed his player prop total 52.0% of the time. He projects for 44.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.26 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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