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Jeremy McNichols Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
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Jeremy McNichols Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 12.1 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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McNichols has been the #67-leading rusher this season, tallying 10 yards per game on the ground.The Tennessee Titans offensive line has ranked #3 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This offense runs the ball 44.2% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL), and they project to run 44.2% of the time in this contest.The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #26 most in the league.
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CONS:
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He has received 7.3% of Tennessee's carries this year -- #90 percentile when it comes to running backs.Tennessee has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#18-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Tennessee Titans have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Titans project to run 60.9 total plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.Tennessee is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.49ers defensive tackles have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.49ers linebackers have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.49ers safeties have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked box 22.7% of the time this season -- #2-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 24.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #39 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, McNichols is projected for 8.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offenses projects to runs 42.2% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The San Francisco 49ers have ranked #15 against the run this year, holding opponents to 109 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, San Francisco's defense has allowed 4.36 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#14-least in football).49ers defensive ends have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 16.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.48. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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