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Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
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Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 63.4 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 62.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Wilson is projected for 29.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.San Francisco is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 41.6% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.6% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 42.8% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Titans linebackers have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked box 10.5% of the time this season -- #26-most in football.The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #25 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Wilson has been the #24-leading rusher this season, tallying 50 yards per game on the ground.The San Francisco 49ers offensive line has ranked #31 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The 49ers project to run 61.2 total plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.The Tennessee Titans have ranked #3 against the run this year, holding opponents to 87 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Tennessee's defense has allowed 3.99 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#4-least in football).Titans safeties have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 38.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #59 percentile among running backs.He has received 33.7% of San Francisco's carries this year -- #43 percentile when it comes to running backs.Titans defensive ends have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Titans defensive tackles have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 72.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $6.30. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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