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Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 63.5 @ -115.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Wilson is projected for 23.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • San Francisco is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offense runs the ball 41.3% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.3% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 44.8% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Falcons safeties have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked box 10.5% of the time this season -- #26-most in football.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 7.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #30 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • The San Francisco 49ers offensive line has ranked #31 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

  • He has been on the field for 34.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #57 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 28.6% of San Francisco's carries this year -- #49 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The 49ers project to run 63.9 total plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have ranked #22 against the run this year, holding opponents to 120 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Atlanta's defense has allowed 4.44 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#16-least in football).
  • Falcons defensive ends have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Falcons linebackers have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 64.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.6% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.21 and with a negative ROI of -5%.

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