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Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 63.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Wilson is projected for 23.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.San Francisco is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 41.3% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.3% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 44.8% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons safeties have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked box 10.5% of the time this season -- #26-most in football.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 7.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #30 most in the league.
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CONS:
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The San Francisco 49ers offensive line has ranked #31 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 34.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #57 percentile among running backs.He has received 28.6% of San Francisco's carries this year -- #49 percentile when it comes to running backs.The 49ers project to run 63.9 total plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.The Atlanta Falcons have ranked #22 against the run this year, holding opponents to 120 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Atlanta's defense has allowed 4.44 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#16-least in football).Falcons defensive ends have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons linebackers have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 64.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.21 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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