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Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 54.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Waddle ranks in the #79 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 77.2% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Waddle ranks in the #84 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 87.9% of Miami's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Waddle ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.5% of passes this season.Waddle's 74.7% completion rate marks him in the #86 percentile among receivers.The Dolphins enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.8% of the time (#7 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Miami to drop back to pass on 62.9% of their plays in this game (#10-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Miami's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Miami has run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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The Patriots's pass defense ranks #4-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 136 yards per game this season.The New England Patriots have allowed 7.72 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #9-highest among NFL opponents.The New England Patriots rank #6-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 61.4%.As a unit, the Patriots safeties rank #3 in pass coverage.The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #28-most on the game slate.Miami's O-Line grades out as the #29-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Waddle open.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Dolphins have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Waddle for a 0.0% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Waddle ranks in the #37 percentile and has put up 7.65 yards per target this season.As a unit, the Patriots cornerbacks rank #11 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Miami has run the #13-fastest paced offense this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Waddle to exceed his player prop total 52.6% of the time. He projects for 59.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.87 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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