| |
Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Waddle has been on the field for 83.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 86.7% of Miami's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 23.1% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Waddle has been in the #84 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 75.7% completion rate.The Miami Dolphins have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 65.6% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL).The Dolphins offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Miami Dolphins have run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Opposing wideouts have put up the #28-most yards per target (7.49) against the Giants this season.New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.Miami is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Waddle's offensive line has been #28 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Miami has faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Waddle is projected for -1.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #44 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.78 yards per target this season, ranking in the #38 percentile.New York's defense has allowed 163 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#12-most in football).The Giants have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.2% of their targets this season, (#19-most in the league).New York Giants safeties rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.The Dolphins project to run 63.6 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 57.9% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.98 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
