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Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
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Right now, Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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His 50.8% snap rate this year puts him in the #75 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 45.3% this year puts him in the #72 percentile among running backs.The Chargers defense has allowed 144 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #31-least in football.The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed 4.96 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #30-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Los Angeles have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Los Angeles have been the #25-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Williams finds himself in the #74 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 54 yards.This year, the Broncos have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Denver's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 1-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, Denver has run the #30-fastest paced offense this season.The Broncos are a 8.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Denver's ranks #19 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Williams for a 0.8% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Denver Broncos are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.Denver has been the #13-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 40.2% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #20-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.4% of their plays.The linebackers of Los Angeles have been the #16-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Los Angeles have been the #16-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Denver has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (15.4% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Chargers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #13-most in the NFL this year at 15.6% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Williams to exceed his player prop total 49.0% of the time. He projects for 56.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.37 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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