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Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
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Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 59.6 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 50.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #75 percentile among running backs.He has received 45.4% of Denver's carries this year -- #30 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Las Vegas Raiders have ranked #23 against the run this year, holding opponents to 123 yards per game on the ground.Raiders defensive ends have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Raiders defensive tackles have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Raiders safeties have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Williams has been the #17-leading rusher this season, tallying 58 yards per game on the ground.Denver has played in the #4-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Raiders linebackers have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 22.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #1 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Denver Broncos offensive line has ranked #18 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for 0.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Broncos project to run 62.3 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 40.3% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.3% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 40.3% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, Las Vegas's defense has allowed 4.42 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#15-least in football).Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Denver Broncos have faced a stacked box 15.4% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.83 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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