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Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions
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Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 50.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #75 percentile among running backs.He has received 45.8% of Denver's carries this year -- #30 percentile when it comes to running backs.Denver is a 12.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 46.7% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Detroit Lions have ranked #29 against the run this year, holding opponents to 134 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Detroit's defense has allowed 4.59 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#23-least in football).Lions defensive ends have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Williams has been the #18-leading rusher this season, tallying 55 yards per game on the ground.Denver has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Denver Broncos have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Denver Broncos offensive line has ranked #19 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for 5.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Broncos project to run 61.2 total plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 38.9% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.9% of the time in this contest.Lions defensive tackles have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions linebackers have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Lions safeties have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Denver Broncos have faced a stacked box 15.4% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.The Detroit Lions have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #18 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 69.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$7.20 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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