| |
Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 71.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
He has been on the field for 47.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #70 percentile among running backs.He has received 42.2% of Denver's carries this year -- #31 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for 26.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.In terms of efficiency, Kansas City's defense has allowed 4.71 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#24-least in football).Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chiefs linebackers have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chiefs safeties have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #28 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Williams has been the #22-leading rusher this season, tallying 51 yards per game on the ground.Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Broncos project to run 61.2 total plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.Denver is a 8.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
The Denver Broncos offensive line has ranked #20 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This offense runs the ball 38.4% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.4% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 38.4% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Kansas City Chiefs have ranked #14 against the run this year, holding opponents to 110 yards per game on the ground.Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Denver Broncos have faced a stacked box 15.4% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 79.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.58. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
