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Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 71.5 @ -115.
  • He has been on the field for 47.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #70 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 42.2% of Denver's carries this year -- #31 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for 26.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • In terms of efficiency, Kansas City's defense has allowed 4.71 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#24-least in football).
  • Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Chiefs linebackers have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Chiefs safeties have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #28 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Williams has been the #22-leading rusher this season, tallying 51 yards per game on the ground.
  • Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Broncos project to run 61.2 total plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
  • Denver is a 8.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

  • The Denver Broncos offensive line has ranked #20 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.4% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.4% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 38.4% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have ranked #14 against the run this year, holding opponents to 110 yards per game on the ground.
  • Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Denver Broncos have faced a stacked box 15.4% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 79.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.6% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.58. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.

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