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Jauan Jennings Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Jauan Jennings Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 28.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Jennings for a 4.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Jennings ranks in the #68 percentile and has put up 8.70 yards per target this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 60.7 plays in this matchup, the #7-most on the game slate.The 49ers enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 59.5% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jennings open.
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CONS:
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In terms of playing time, Jennings ranks in the #29 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 30.4% of his team's snaps this season.The Packers's pass defense ranks #10-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 138 yards per game this season.The Green Bay Packers have allowed 7.42 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #5-highest among NFL opponents.The Green Bay Packers rank #2-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 58.6%.In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time (#28 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of route running, Jennings ranks in the #34 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 37.9% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Jennings ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 8.1% of passes this season.Jennings's 64.8% completion rate marks him in the #47 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Packers cornerbacks rank #13 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Packers safeties rank #13 in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jennings to exceed his player prop total 50.6% of the time. He projects for 25.0 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.82 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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