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Jauan Jennings Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
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Jauan Jennings Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 21.1 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jennings is projected for 4.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Tennessee's defense has allowed 189 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#2-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #7-most yards per target (8.95) against the Titans this season.The Titans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.7% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).Jennings's offensive line has been #5 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Jennings has been on the field for 27.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #26 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 31.5% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #30 percentile among wide receivers.Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The 49ers project to run 61.2 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.San Francisco is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.4% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.2% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The 49ers offensive line has given the QB 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#23-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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His target share this season has been 6.2% -- #35 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.49 yards per target this season, ranking in the #34 percentile.Jennings has been in the #34 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.6% completion rate.Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 22.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.25 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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