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Jauan Jennings Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
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Jauan Jennings Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 25.1 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jennings is projected for 9.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.San Francisco has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.The 49ers project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.Jennings's offensive line has been #5 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Jennings has been on the field for 21.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #20 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 20.1% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #20 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 3.9% -- #20 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.San Francisco is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).The 49ers offensive line has given the QB 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#23-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Seattle's defense has allowed 154 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#20-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #22-most yards per target (7.95) against the Seahawks this season.The Seahawks have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.2% of their targets this season, (#15-most in the league).Seattle Seahawks cornerbacks rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 57.1% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 34.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.42. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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