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Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
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Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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His target share this season has been 21.4% -- #85 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Cleveland has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Baltimore's defense has allowed 179 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (8.89) against the Ravens this season.Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.Cleveland is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Landry's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
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CONS:
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The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.9% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).The Cleveland Browns have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 58.1 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 56.1% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Landry has been on the field for 63.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 68.9% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Landry is projected for 0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers.Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 46.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.03 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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