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Jarvis Landry

Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
Jarvis Landry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).
  • His target share this season has been 21.4% -- #85 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Cleveland has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Baltimore's defense has allowed 179 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (8.89) against the Ravens this season.
  • Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.
  • Cleveland is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Landry's offensive line has been #9 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cleveland has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).

  • CONS:
  • The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.9% of their targets this season, (#31-most in the league).
  • The Cleveland Browns have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Browns project to run 58.1 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 56.1% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.

  • Landry has been on the field for 63.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 68.9% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Landry is projected for 0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cleveland Browns have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 46.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.03 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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