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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 207.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 210.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 207.5 @ -115.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • The Lions project to run 64.3 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.
  • Detroit is a 13.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 63.8% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • CONS:
  • Efficiency-wise, Goff has been #32 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.32 yards per target.
  • Detroit has played in 8 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#4-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.3% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).
  • The Arizona Cardinals enter this game with the #5-best pass defense this season, allowing 224 yards per game through the air.
  • Arizona's defense has been #5-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.16 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • Cardinals linebackers have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • Goff has passed for 231 yards per game this year, #18-best in the league.
  • He's been the #21-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.6% clip.
  • The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Jared Goff's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Lions offensive line has given Jared Goff 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • The Cardinals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.0% of their targets, ranking #18 in the NFL.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have had the #11-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have had the #12-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have had the #13-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Cardinals defensive ends have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Cardinals defensive tackles have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have stacked the box on 12.1% of their plays this season, #22-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 259.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 68.8% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $32.88. It's return on investment would yeild 29%.

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