| |
Jared Goff Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 210.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 226.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 210.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Detroit is a 12.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 61.4% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Denver Broncos have had the #26-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Broncos defensive ends have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Broncos linebackers have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Efficiency-wise, Goff has been #32 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.37 yards per target.Detroit has played in 8 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.The Lions project to run 59.5 plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 58.2% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.4%).The Broncos have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.7% of their targets, ranking #1 in the NFL.The Denver Broncos have had the #4-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Denver Broncos have stacked the box on 8.9% of their plays this season, #27-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Goff has passed for 231 yards per game this year, #20-best in the league.He's been the #19-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.7% clip.The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Jared Goff's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Lions offensive line has given Jared Goff 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Denver Broncos enter this game with the #11-best pass defense this season, allowing 237 yards per game through the air.Denver's defense has been #11-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.50 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Denver Broncos have had the #22-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 237.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.34. It's return on investment would yeild 12%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
