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Jamison Crowder Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
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Jamison Crowder Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Crowder has been on the field for 69.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 79.6% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 17.3% -- #73 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Crowder is projected for 7.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.Crowder has been in the #83 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 74.0% completion rate.New Orleans's defense has allowed 179 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#6-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #7-most yards per target (9.11) against the Saints this season.New York is a 5.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
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CONS:
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New Orleans Saints safeties rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.The Jets project to run 60.2 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.The Jets offensive line has given the QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.62 yards per target this season, ranking in the #33 percentile.The Saints have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.9% of their targets this season, (#11-most in the league).New Orleans Saints cornerbacks rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #12-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 62.2% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 60.7% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Crowder's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.89 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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