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James Robinson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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James Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-115/-120) with an implied projection of 79.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 73.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 79.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 62.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #92 percentile among running backs.He has received 57.8% of Jacksonville's carries this year -- #15 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Robinson is projected for 20.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to runs 43.6% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New York Jets have ranked #32 against the run this year, holding opponents to 153 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 5.09 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#32-least in football).Jets defensive tackles have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jets linebackers have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jets safeties have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked box 11.1% of the time this season -- #24-most in football.
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CONS:
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Robinson has been the #18-leading rusher this season, tallying 58 yards per game on the ground.The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line has ranked #27 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The Jaguars project to run 61.9 total plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.Jets defensive ends have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The New York Jets have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 21.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #2 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jacksonville has played in the #15-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 39.8% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.8% of the time in this contest.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 114.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 68.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $32.32. It's return on investment would yeild 28%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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