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James Robinson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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James Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 59.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #89 percentile among running backs.He has received 55.2% of Jacksonville's carries this year -- #17 percentile when it comes to running backs.Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 40.9% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.9% of the time in this contest.Titans linebackers have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked box 11.1% of the time this season -- #24-most in football.The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #25 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Robinson has been the #14-leading rusher this season, tallying 62 yards per game on the ground.The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line has ranked #29 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The Jaguars project to run 60.8 total plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.Jacksonville is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Tennessee Titans have ranked #6 against the run this year, holding opponents to 99 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Tennessee's defense has allowed 4.20 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#9-least in football).Titans safeties have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Robinson is projected for 1.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offenses projects to runs 40.3% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Titans defensive ends have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Titans defensive tackles have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 69.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $15.03. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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