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James Robinson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
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James Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 65.5 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 66.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Robinson has been the #14-leading rusher this season, tallying 63 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 62.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #92 percentile among running backs.He has received 57.3% of Jacksonville's carries this year -- #16 percentile when it comes to running backs.Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Jaguars project to run 63.3 total plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 40.1% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.1% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 42.5% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Atlanta Falcons have ranked #26 against the run this year, holding opponents to 128 yards per game on the ground.Falcons defensive ends have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons linebackers have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons safeties have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked box 11.4% of the time this season -- #25-most in football.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #27 most in the league.
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CONS:
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The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line has ranked #27 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Robinson is projected for 8.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #82 percentile among running backs.In terms of efficiency, Atlanta's defense has allowed 4.55 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#19-least in football).Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 89.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $25.24. It's return on investment would yeild 23%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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